CCV Crypto Risk Models Trial – https://app.cryptocapitalventure.ai/risk-metric
Crypto prices are crashing and we get a much needed reminde that this is what even crypto bull markets are made of.
This crypto dip is what bull markets are made of. Bitcoin (BTC) is down 7% on the day and Ethereum (ETH) is printing big red daily candles, so I go back to the last real Bitcoin bull market to show how normal 15%, 17%, even 30% dips were on the way up. I revisit my September 29 call on a potential Ethereum rejection at the inverse head and shoulders neckline, and break down where Ethereum and altcoins like Ondo (ONDO), Sui (SUI), Cardano (ADA) and Midnight (NIGHT) sit in the cycle right now.
We cover the Bitcoin 50-week moving average near $77,000, the AI wallet-drain and new pandemic headlines lining up at this exact macro pivot, and the new CCV business cycle index, which just confirmed its first expansion signal after a contraction roughly double the length of 2008. In the CCVI risk models, Bitcoin is at a 26 risk score, a level where price was higher one year later 99% of the time. Ethereum is at a 29 (92%) and Ondo at a 30 (87%).
CHAPTERS
0:00 This dip is what bull markets are made of
0:37 The September 29 Ethereum call
1:28 Ethereum rejection at the neckline
2:40 Bitcoin dips in the last bull market
4:39 Why red candles are normal
5:20 Bitcoin 50-week moving average
6:47 AI and black swan headlines
8:07 CCVI Bitcoin risk at 26
9:16 CCV business cycle index
11:00 Ethereum multi-year accumulation range
14:11 Red October and a higher low
15:35 The story behind the inverse head and shoulders
17:21 Ethereum risk model and key levels
18:54 Ondo
21:20 Sui
22:49 Cardano
23:54 Midnight
25:02 Outro
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47 Comments
@TamunoErnest · October 28, 2026 at 11:41 pm
Thanks for breaking this down. I’ve been watching the market too, and honestly, this sell-off has made me pay more attention to what’s happening beyond Bitcoin. I’m also watching stocks, gold, and oil on BingX to get a better picture of the market.
@Artful-Dodger-7 · October 28, 2026 at 11:41 pm
I had that Plague for 2 weeks- nearly killed me. Sore throat, I was blowing my nose nonstop 🤣
@Kelzanogaming · October 28, 2026 at 11:41 pm
Been following for awhile Dan appreciate the analysis as always. GG
@janchristiansen6353 · October 28, 2026 at 11:41 pm
Lol!
@DirshayeYisak · October 28, 2026 at 11:41 pm
I’ve been keeping an eye on Bitensity because should hit some big milestones soon
@riya-r4r3i · October 28, 2026 at 11:41 pm
A serious eBay collaboration will put Bitensity directly in front of the eCommerce world.
@BrithiMunsi · October 28, 2026 at 11:41 pm
Once people start talking seriously about crypto and eCommerce together, Bitensity could benefit a lot.
@rafikasultana3194 · October 28, 2026 at 11:41 pm
Anyone still on the fence about Bitensity is going to regret missing the ICO window, the hype is building fast.
@RahiSaha-z7t · October 28, 2026 at 11:41 pm
Major listings incoming and Bitensity still has room to run.
@sirinsultana9336 · October 28, 2026 at 11:41 pm
It feels like Bitensity is building toward something much bigger.
@johnny-d4k6v · October 28, 2026 at 11:41 pm
Growing interest in Bitensity is a good sign
@raimamaity · October 28, 2026 at 11:41 pm
There is definitely room for Bitensity to attract a lot more attention from here.
@RiyaAdak2025 · October 28, 2026 at 11:41 pm
FOMO levels rising as Bitensity prepares for exchange listings.
@heywo9206 · October 28, 2026 at 11:41 pm
This one has the partners and timing, Bitensity could deliver.
@edelquinsimiyu4261 · October 28, 2026 at 11:41 pm
ICO almost closed and Bitensity is generating real heat.
@sangitasimplelifestyle6382 · October 28, 2026 at 11:41 pm
Imagine Bitensity hitting major exchanges after people spent months ignoring it.
@dipikalodh7232 · October 28, 2026 at 11:41 pm
One thing worth following with Bitensity is how still early with potential upside, alongside significant risk
@kreisk · October 28, 2026 at 11:41 pm
Check Bitensity if you haven’t. Crypto in ecom can make the whole thing more transparent
@DelaneyMarlowe · October 28, 2026 at 11:41 pm
Imagine Bitensity hitting major exchanges after people spent months ignoring it.
@KhusiKhatun-i5p · October 28, 2026 at 11:41 pm
Your random comment will appear here.
@toddp3111 · October 28, 2026 at 11:41 pm
ETH hasn't done shit in 5 years. It's time.
@chanceholden7545 · October 28, 2026 at 11:41 pm
Thid dude bought DOG 😂
@reeceffx · October 28, 2026 at 11:41 pm
Heading for 42K mark
@ChartSage1 · October 28, 2026 at 11:41 pm
Spot on, sudden market flushes are exactly how structural support floors get stress-tested before the next major macro expansion. ChartScout scanner has been tracking these exact consolidation boundaries across the board, making it easy to separate a healthy shakeout from an actual breakdown pattern trigger.
@MendiDon · October 28, 2026 at 11:41 pm
The good old days 😊! Real quality content as always! Been following you for a long time since early days. Kẹp the honest and the quality content.
@JimmyPena-q3f · October 28, 2026 at 11:41 pm
These influences have no idea what they are talking about! They are here to sell products! Plain and simple!
@AltcoinsNews-v6d · October 28, 2026 at 11:41 pm
Good morning, crypto fam! ☀️
October 9 is here – another day to accumulate crypto, ride the charts, and build the future. Coffee in hand, wallets ready, vibes bullish. Let's make today count! 🚀
@salomms · October 28, 2026 at 11:41 pm
You like ONDO… what about SECZ
@IncognitoManOrWoman · October 28, 2026 at 11:41 pm
The plague in Russia.
@seenoevol-z4j · October 28, 2026 at 11:41 pm
People are probably afraid of the 10/10 event from last year.
@sillybilly3690 · October 28, 2026 at 11:41 pm
Been DCA'ing several crypto products since late 2022 in anticipation of a bull market so still averaging above current prices. In hindsight, dumb. In foresight, never again.
@davemuller441 · October 28, 2026 at 11:41 pm
Goooo my friend Dan. Im still with u 🎉❤❤❤
@kjo68 · October 28, 2026 at 11:41 pm
BS
@sillybilly3690 · October 28, 2026 at 11:41 pm
"Bull market" is the wrong description. Bull markets do not behave like this. Crypto is simply a retail money extraction vehicle from inside traders (cheats) and deceptive actors (pumpers, fraudsters).
@Danny_Boy_Blue · October 28, 2026 at 11:41 pm
Dan- what rubbish. Crashes before a bull market has even started is what bear markets are made of. It’s really tiresome hearing optimism when the situation is quite obviously shit.
@smxlad · October 28, 2026 at 11:41 pm
It’s normal. We are starting a bull. It’s to be expected. Don’t get shaken out guys
@kingtsik · October 28, 2026 at 11:41 pm
Liked this dip. Golden cross remains intact😊
@SigmaPolyMathHybridBrain · October 28, 2026 at 11:41 pm
Yep. I bought more
@stefanbakker164 · October 28, 2026 at 11:41 pm
After years in this space, I eat red candles with a dip for breakfast 😂👍 LFG ✨️🚀We're so close I can taste the moon dust 🤑
@Artful-Dodger-7 · October 28, 2026 at 11:41 pm
I wouldn’t call it beautiful – but he’s right, dips happen. Now come on CZ when SOON? 🙏
@f3042 · October 28, 2026 at 11:41 pm
New here. Succinct. Lots of info. Subbed!
@Kevin-p6h6x · October 28, 2026 at 11:41 pm
I feel like I bought at the beginning of the dip rather than a little later. Freaking amateur! But I'm doing it and learning. I'm grateful to this channel, Dan! Thank you!
@pavelhurta9481 · October 28, 2026 at 11:41 pm
Easily i can just buy and sell by your comments. As soon as price going up everybody tells how genius you are. When going down now you are stupid. I guess its time to byu some more😁
@tmills2200 · October 28, 2026 at 11:41 pm
It was a bulltrap
@AlmightyAjax · October 28, 2026 at 11:41 pm
I already have alot of Night, but if we get a 40% dip then I will certainly buy some more.
@afoxfix · October 28, 2026 at 11:41 pm
STOP F'ING SUPPRESSING XRP!!! 4 DIGITS NOW!!! REWARD THE HOLDERS THAT FUNDED RIPPLES INTERESTS!! A MASS CONVERSION TO XLM QNT HBAR OR ARC WILL HURT. 4 DIGITS NOW!!
@DavidShearier · October 28, 2026 at 11:41 pm
Yada Yada Yada…seriously dude….stop it….